Appears to be a fairly substantial amount of debate over who exactly are Tea Party folks....so I'll do a deep dive here and see if I can come to some conclusions....or at least outline the controversy between the various polls. Disclaimer - small sample sizes on all of them. Try getting 1000 opinions and then stipulate that they represent 300 million opinions....
Adding to the drama, according to the latest Gallup poll, the parties are evenly split -
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending April 4 finds the two major parties tied at 46% in the congressional voting preferences of registered voters nationally. In the two weeks since Congress passed healthcare reform on March 21, Democrats have tied or trailed the Republicans, after having at least a slight advantage in the weeks prior.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/127223/Parties-Even-Congressional-Midterm-Preferences.aspx
Myth-busting polls: Tea Party members are average Americans, 41% are Democrats, independents
For upwards of 12 months now members of the so-called Tea Party protest movement have been stereotyped, derogated and often dismissed by some politicians and media outlets.
They've been portrayed variously as angry fringe elements, often inarticulate, potentially violent and merely Republicans in sheep's clothing or disgruntled pockets of conservatives blindly lashing out at a left-handed President Obama and the same side of his Democratic Party finally getting its chance to drive home a liberal agenda after eight years of Republican rule and six under a centrist Bill Clinton.
Alas for stereotypes, they're convenient, often catchy. But not necessarily true.
Now, comes a pair of polls, including Gallup, that paint a revealing detailed portrait of Tea Party supporters in most ways as pretty average Americans. A Sunday poll -- actually three national phone surveys of 1,000 registered voters -- found that 17% of all polled, or more than 500, called themselves "part of the Tea Party movement."
"It's a good sample size," David Winston, polling director of the Winston Group that did the poll for an education advocacy group, told the Ballot Box blog of The Hill newspaper.
The Tea Party adherents broke down 28% independent, 17% Democrat and only 57% Republican. Not coincidentally, this bipartisan breakdown has been the way that Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin has often described movement members as "commonsense Americans" worried and....
...angered by the over-reaching one-party control of Democrats in Washington these last 15 months, rooted initially in opposition to Obama's $787 billion government economic stimulus package.
A new Gallup Poll out this morning of 1,033 finds nothing fringe about self-proclaimed Tea Party adherents; they are slightly more likely to be employed, male and definitely more conservative. But otherwise Gallup's Lydia Saad writes, "their age, educational background, employment status, and race -- Tea Partiers are quite representative of the public at large."
While economic issues like stubbornly high unemployment rates and declining home values cause widespread worries, Winston found top issues among the self-identified Tea Party followers are jobs/the economy and the exploding federal deficit. A whopping 95% told pollsters that Washington "Democrats are taxing, spending and borrowing too much."
Fully 87% told Gallup they oppose Obama's healthcare legislation.
The Winston poll says 80% of total Tea Party supporters dislike Obama's job performance, a higher negative rate even than the 77% of Republicans who disapprove of the ex-state senator's White House work.
They are, of course, only two polls and a long time politically until November.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/04/tea-party-obama.html
Four in 10 Tea Party members are either Democrats or Independents, according to a new national survey.
The findings provide one of the most detailed portraits to date of the grassroots movement that started last year.
The national breakdown of the Tea Party composition is 57 percent Republican, 28 percent Independent and 13 percent Democratic, according to three national polls by the Winston Group, a Republican-leaning firm that conducted the surveys on behalf of an education advocacy group. Two-thirds of the group call themselves conservative, 26 are moderate and 8 percent say they are liberal.
The Winston Group conducted three national telephone surveys of 1,000 registered voters between December and February. Of those polled, 17 percent – more than 500 people -- said they were “part of the Tea Party movement.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/90541-survey-four-in-10-tea-party-members-dem-or-indie
PRINCETON, NJ -- Tea Party supporters skew right politically; but demographically, they are generally representative of the public at large. That's the finding of a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 26-28, in which 28% of U.S. adults call themselves supporters of the Tea Party movement.
Tea Party supporters are decidedly Republican and conservative in their leanings. Also, compared with average Americans, supporters are slightly more likely to be male and less likely to be lower-income.
In several other respects, however -- their age, educational background, employment status, and race -- Tea Partiers are quite representative of the public at large.
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/127181/Tea-Partiers-Fairly-Mainstream-Demographics.aspx
The Winston Group Study -
http://www.scribd.com/doc/29412899/29297844-Tea-Party-Memo-April-2010
Washington (CNN) -- Activists in the Tea Party movement tend to be male, rural, upscale, and overwhelmingly conservative, according to a new national poll.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Wednesday also indicates that Tea Party activists would vote overwhelmingly Republican in a two-party race for Congress. The party's GOP leanings, the poll suggests, may pose a problem for the Tea Party movement if it tries to turn itself into a third party to compete with the two major parties in this year's general election.
According to the survey, roughly 11 percent of all Americans say they have actively supported the Tea Party movement, either by donating money, attending a rally, or taking some other active step to support the movement. Of this core group of Tea Party activists, 6 of 10 are male and half live in rural areas.
Nearly three-quarters of Tea Party activists attended college, compared to 54 percent of all Americans, and more than 3 in 4 call themselves conservatives.
"Keep in mind that this is a pretty small sample of Tea Party activists," Holland said. "But even taking that into account, the demographic gaps that the poll finds between those activists and the general public on gender, education, income, ideology, and voting behavior appear to be significant differences."
The poll indicates that about 24 percent of the public generally favors the Tea Party movement but has not taken any actions such as donating money or attending a rally. Adding in the 11 percent who say they are active, a total of 35 percent could be described as Tea Party supporters. That larger group is also predominantly male, higher-income, and conservative.
Some 45 percent of all Americans say they don't know enough about the Tea Party to have a view of the movement; 1 in 5 say they oppose the Tea Party.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/02/17/tea.party.poll/
The CNN Poll -
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/02/17/rel4b.pdf
Excerpts below -
Interviews with 1,023 adult Americans, including 954 registered voters, conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on February 12-15, 2010. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Would you favor or oppose having a third political party that would run candidates for President,
Congress and state offices against the Republican and Democratic candidates?
Feb. 12-15 2010
Favor 64%
Oppose 34%
No opinion 2%
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP AND CNN/TIME TRENDS
Favor Oppose No opinion
1999 July 16-18* 67 28 5
1995 Aug. 4-7* 62 29 9
1995 April 17-19* 60 34 6
1995 Feb. 28-Mar. 1** 56 34 10
1994 Aug. 31-Sept. 1** 58 30 12
1994 Aug. 17-18** 59 32 9
1992 Oct. 20-22** 63 28 9
1992 July 16** 58 31 11
1992 July 8-9** 59 31 10
1992 June 3-4** 58 32 10
*CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls
**CNN/Time polls QUESTION WORDING 1992-1995: Would you favor or oppose the formation of a third political party that would run candidates for President, Congress and
state offices against the Republican and Democratic candidates?
End of excerpt.
Perspective via Bloomberg poll...
More than 90 percent of Tea Party backers interviewed in a new Bloomberg National Poll say the U.S. is verging more toward socialism than capitalism, the federal government is trying to control too many aspects of private life and more decisions should be made at the state level.
At the same time, 70 percent of those who sympathize with the Tea Party, which organized protests this week against President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul, want a federal government that fosters job creation.
They also look to the government to rein in Wall Street, with almost half saying the government should do something about executive bonuses. Supporters are also conflicted over whether private-enterprise elements should be introduced into government programs like Social Security and Medicare.
“The ideas that find nearly universal agreement among Tea Party supporters are rather vague,” says J. Ann Selzer, the pollster who created the survey. “You would think any idea that involves more government action would be anathema, and that is just not the case.”
Wrong Track
Ninety percent of Tea Party supporters say the country is on the wrong track and almost the same number doubt that Washington can find solutions. Their top concern is money, with more than a third citing government spending and the deficit. More than 80 percent say expansion of the government’s role in the economy is a high threat.
“It’s just the fundamental right of people to protest,” says Victor Mondello, a 79-year-old retiree from Andover, Massachusetts. Mondello, an independent, opposes “big government” and the health-care bill.
Overall, 26 percent of those polled identified themselves as Tea Party backers, while 53 percent said they weren’t and 21 percent said they weren’t sure.
Still, majorities of both Democrats and Republicans agree that government spending is out of control and 92 percent of Republicans and 71 percent of independents say the government tries to control too many aspects of private life.
Older, White
Tea Party supporters are likely to be older, white and male. Forty percent are age 55 and over, compared with 32 percent of all poll respondents; just 22 percent are under the age of 35, 79 percent are white, and 61 percent are men. Many are also Christian fundamentalists, with 44 percent identifying themselves as “born-again,” compared with 33 percent of all respondents.
The poll of 1,002 U.S. adults was conducted March 19-22 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLBZwxqgYgwI
Real Clear Politics
Generic Congressional Vote Tracking -
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html
Neck and neck between Republicans and Democrats. Most folks seem like they are sick of both though. I see no measurable difference between the two. Time for some fresh new blood....independent blood! Get rid of the career politicians!
